Choice of climate data influences predictions for current and future global invasion risks for two Phelsuma geckos
Nicolas Dubos
(1, 2)
,
Thomas Fieldsend
(3)
,
Markus A Roesch
(4)
,
Stéphane Augros
(5)
,
Aurélien Besnard
(6)
,
Arthur Choeur
(7)
,
Ivan Ineich
(8)
,
Kenneth Krysko
(9)
,
Boris Leroy
(10)
,
Sparkle L Malone
(3)
,
Jean-Michel Probst
(11)
,
Christopher Raxworthy
(12)
,
Angelica Crottini
(1)
1
CIBIO -
Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos [Vairao]
2 UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale
3 FIU - Florida International University [Miami]
4 Association Nature Océan Indien
5 ECOLAG - Ecosystèmes lagunaires : organisation biologique et fonctionnement
6 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
7 ENTROPIE [Réunion] - Ecologie marine tropicale dans les Océans Pacifique et Indien
8 ISYEB - Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité
9 Florida Museum of Natural History [Gainesville]
10 BOREA - Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques
11 Parc national de La Réunion
12 AMNH - American Museum of Natural History [New York, USA] = Musée américain d'histoire naturelle [New York, USA]
2 UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale
3 FIU - Florida International University [Miami]
4 Association Nature Océan Indien
5 ECOLAG - Ecosystèmes lagunaires : organisation biologique et fonctionnement
6 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
7 ENTROPIE [Réunion] - Ecologie marine tropicale dans les Océans Pacifique et Indien
8 ISYEB - Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité
9 Florida Museum of Natural History [Gainesville]
10 BOREA - Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques
11 Parc national de La Réunion
12 AMNH - American Museum of Natural History [New York, USA] = Musée américain d'histoire naturelle [New York, USA]
Nicolas Dubos
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1201114
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1651-3797
Markus A Roesch
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 824475
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9861-290X
Arthur Choeur
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1201114
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1651-3797
Ivan Ineich
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1221313
- ORCID : 0000-0003-1235-1505
Boris Leroy
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 177393
- IdHAL : boris-leroy
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7686-4302
- IdRef : 168923548
Résumé
Abstract Invasion risks may be influenced either negatively or positively by climate change, depending on the species. These can be predicted with species distribution models, but projections can be strongly affected by the source of the environmental data (climate data source, Global Circulation Models GCM and Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP). We modelled the distribution of Phelsuma grandis and P. laticauda , two Malagasy reptiles that are spreading globally. We accounted for drivers of spread and establishment using socio-economic factors (e.g., distance from ports) and two climate data sources, i.e., Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth’s and Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) and Worldclim. We further quantified the degree of agreement in invasion risk models that utilised CHELSA and Worldclim data for current and future conditions. Most areas identified as highly exposed to invasion risks were consistently identified (e.g. in Caribbean and Pacific Islands). However, projected risks differed locally. We also found notable differences in quantitative invasion risk (3% difference in suitability scores for P. laticauda and up to 14% for P. grandis ) under current conditions. Despite both species native distributions overlapping substantially, climate change will drive opposite responses on invasion risks by 2070 (decrease for P. grandis, increase for P. laticauda ). Overall, projections of future invasion risks were the most affected by climate data source, followed by SSP. Our results highlight that assessments of current and future invasion risks are sensitive to the climate data source, especially in islands. We stress the need to account for multiple climatologies when assessing invasion risks.
Domaines
Sciences de l'environnementFormat du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Choice of climate data influences predictions for current and future global invasion risks for two Phelsuma geckos
|
Résumé |
en
Abstract Invasion risks may be influenced either negatively or positively by climate change, depending on the species. These can be predicted with species distribution models, but projections can be strongly affected by the source of the environmental data (climate data source, Global Circulation Models GCM and Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP). We modelled the distribution of Phelsuma grandis and P. laticauda , two Malagasy reptiles that are spreading globally. We accounted for drivers of spread and establishment using socio-economic factors (e.g., distance from ports) and two climate data sources, i.e., Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth’s and Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) and Worldclim. We further quantified the degree of agreement in invasion risk models that utilised CHELSA and Worldclim data for current and future conditions. Most areas identified as highly exposed to invasion risks were consistently identified (e.g. in Caribbean and Pacific Islands). However, projected risks differed locally. We also found notable differences in quantitative invasion risk (3% difference in suitability scores for P. laticauda and up to 14% for P. grandis ) under current conditions. Despite both species native distributions overlapping substantially, climate change will drive opposite responses on invasion risks by 2070 (decrease for P. grandis, increase for P. laticauda ). Overall, projections of future invasion risks were the most affected by climate data source, followed by SSP. Our results highlight that assessments of current and future invasion risks are sensitive to the climate data source, especially in islands. We stress the need to account for multiple climatologies when assessing invasion risks.
|
Auteur(s) |
Nicolas Dubos
1, 2
, Thomas Fieldsend
3
, Markus A Roesch
4
, Stéphane Augros
5
, Aurélien Besnard
6
, Arthur Choeur
7
, Ivan Ineich
8
, Kenneth Krysko
9
, Boris Leroy
10
, Sparkle L Malone
3
, Jean-Michel Probst
11
, Christopher Raxworthy
12
, Angelica Crottini
1
1
CIBIO -
Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos [Vairao]
( 232030 )
- Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrario de Vairão
Rua Padre Armando Quintas, nº 7
4485-661 Vairão
Portugal
- Portugal
2
UMR TETIS -
Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale
( 1002492 )
- Maison de la télédétection - 500 rue Jean-François Breton - 34093 Montpellier Cedex 5
- France
3
FIU -
Florida International University [Miami]
( 303540 )
- 11200 SW 8th St, Miami, FL 33199
- États-Unis
4
Association Nature Océan Indien
( 358077 )
-
- France
5
ECOLAG -
Ecosystèmes lagunaires : organisation biologique et fonctionnement
( 608 )
- Bat. 24, CC 093 Place Eugène Bataillon 34095 MONTPELLIER CEDEX 5
- France
6
CEFE -
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
( 1100830 )
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - 1919 route de Mende - 34293 Montpellier CEDEX 5
- France
7
ENTROPIE [Réunion] -
Ecologie marine tropicale dans les Océans Pacifique et Indien
( 418794 )
- UNIVERSITE DE LA REUNION
Faculté des Sciences et Technolo
15 Avenue René Casin
BP 92003
97744 ST DENIS CEDEX 9
- France
8
ISYEB -
Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité
( 542193 )
- 57 rue Cuvier - CP 50 - 75005 Paris
- France
9
Florida Museum of Natural History [Gainesville]
( 46166 )
- University of Florida,
3215 Hull Rd, Gainesville, FL 32611, États-Unis
- États-Unis
10
BOREA -
Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques
( 542153 )
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle - 7, rue Cuvier - CP 32 - 75231 Paris Cedex 05
- France
11
Parc national de La Réunion
( 443346 )
- 112 rue Sainte Marie, 97400 Saint-Denis
- La Réunion
12
AMNH -
American Museum of Natural History [New York, USA] = Musée américain d'histoire naturelle [New York, USA]
( 303012 )
- Central Park West at 79th Street, New York, NY 10024-5192
- États-Unis
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Date de publication |
2023-05-18
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication électronique |
2023-05-18
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Volume |
25
|
Numéro |
9
|
Page/Identifiant |
p. 2929-2948
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
CHELSA climatologies, Invasive alien species, Madagascar reptiles, Species distribution models, Socio-economic factors, Worldclim climatologies
|
DOI | 10.1007/s10530-023-03082-8 |
UT key WOS | 000989006200001 |
Origine :
Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
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