Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island
Alessandro Tadini
(1)
,
Andrew Harris
(1)
,
Julie Morin
(2)
,
Andrea Bevilacqua
(3)
,
Aline Peltier
(4)
,
Willy Aspinall
(5)
,
Stefano Ciolli
(6)
,
Patrick Bachèlery
(1)
,
Benjamin Bernard
(7)
,
Jonas Biren
(1, 8, 9)
,
António Brum da Silveira
(10)
,
Valéry Cayol
(1)
,
Oryaëlle Chevrel
(1)
,
Diego Coppola
(11)
,
Hannah Dietterich
(12)
,
Amy Donovan
(13)
,
Olaya Dorado
(14)
,
Stéphane Drenne
(15)
,
Olivier Dupéré
(16)
,
Lucia Gurioli
(1)
,
Stephan Kolzenburg
(17)
,
Jean-Christophe Komorowski
(18)
,
Philippe Labazuy
(1)
,
Domenico Mangione
(19)
,
Stefano Mannini
(20)
,
François Martel-Asselin
(21)
,
Etienne Médard
(1)
,
Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat
(1)
,
Victoria Rafflin
(1)
,
Michael Ramsey
(22)
,
Nicole Richter
(23)
,
Silvia Vallejo
(24)
,
Nicolas Villeneuve
(25, 18)
,
Silvia Zafrilla
(14)
1
LMV -
Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans
2 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
3 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione di Pisa
4 OVPF - Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise
5 University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences
6 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione
7 Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
8 ISTO - Institut des Sciences de la Terre d'Orléans - UMR7327
9 Magma - UMR7327
10 DG-FCUL, Departamento de Geologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa
11 UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin
12 USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory
13 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
14 GEO3BCN CSIC, Geosci Barcelona, Grp Dynam Lithosphere GDL, Luis Sole I Sabaris S-N, Barcelona 08028
15 Etat Major de Zone et de Protection Civil de l’Océan Indien, Protection civile
16 UR - Université de La Réunion
17 University at Buffalo, Department of Geology
18 IPGP (UMR_7154) - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
19 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
20 Université de Genève, Département des sciences de la Terre
21 Journal de l’île
22 Department of Geology and Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA.
23 Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Wissenschaftpark "Albert Einstein"
24 Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
25 LGSR - Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion
2 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
3 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione di Pisa
4 OVPF - Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise
5 University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences
6 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione
7 Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
8 ISTO - Institut des Sciences de la Terre d'Orléans - UMR7327
9 Magma - UMR7327
10 DG-FCUL, Departamento de Geologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa
11 UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin
12 USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory
13 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
14 GEO3BCN CSIC, Geosci Barcelona, Grp Dynam Lithosphere GDL, Luis Sole I Sabaris S-N, Barcelona 08028
15 Etat Major de Zone et de Protection Civil de l’Océan Indien, Protection civile
16 UR - Université de La Réunion
17 University at Buffalo, Department of Geology
18 IPGP (UMR_7154) - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
19 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
20 Université de Genève, Département des sciences de la Terre
21 Journal de l’île
22 Department of Geology and Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA.
23 Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Wissenschaftpark "Albert Einstein"
24 Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
25 LGSR - Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion
Alessandro Tadini
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-3603-0853
Aline Peltier
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdHAL : peltieraline
Patrick Bachèlery
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdHAL : patrick-bachelery
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- IdRef : 068733887
Benjamin Bernard
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-0333-5493
Jonas Biren
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdRef : 26932352X
Valéry Cayol
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdHAL : valerie-cayol
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Oryaëlle Chevrel
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Diego Coppola
- Fonction : Auteur
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Lucia Gurioli
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 22120
- IdHAL : lucia-gurioli
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- IdRef : 175659346
Jean-Christophe Komorowski
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdHAL : jean-christophe-komorowski
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- IdRef : 164296913
Philippe Labazuy
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16046
- IdHAL : philippe-labazuy
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4518-3328
- IdRef : 143486594
Etienne Médard
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 21809
- IdHAL : etienne-medard
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7040-7442
- IdRef : 080648819
Victoria Rafflin
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- IdHAL : victoriarfln
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8000-9643
Résumé
Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.
Domaines
VolcanologieFormat du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island
|
Résumé |
en
Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.
|
Auteur(s) |
Alessandro Tadini
1
, Andrew Harris
1
, Julie Morin
2
, Andrea Bevilacqua
3
, Aline Peltier
4
, Willy Aspinall
5
, Stefano Ciolli
6
, Patrick Bachèlery
1
, Benjamin Bernard
7
, Jonas Biren
1, 8, 9
, António Brum da Silveira
10
, Valéry Cayol
1
, Oryaëlle Chevrel
1
, Diego Coppola
11
, Hannah Dietterich
12
, Amy Donovan
13
, Olaya Dorado
14
, Stéphane Drenne
15
, Olivier Dupéré
16
, Lucia Gurioli
1
, Stephan Kolzenburg
17
, Jean-Christophe Komorowski
18
, Philippe Labazuy
1
, Domenico Mangione
19
, Stefano Mannini
20
, François Martel-Asselin
21
, Etienne Médard
1
, Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat
1
, Victoria Rafflin
1
, Michael Ramsey
22
, Nicole Richter
23
, Silvia Vallejo
24
, Nicolas Villeneuve
25, 18
, Silvia Zafrilla
14
1
LMV -
Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans
( 1063727 )
- Campus Universitaire des Cézeaux, 6 Avenue Blaise Pascal, 63178 Aubière Cedex
- France
2
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
( 570343 )
- Cambridge
- Royaume-Uni
3
INGV -
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione di Pisa
( 343167 )
- Via della Faggiola, 32, 56126 Pisa, Italy
- Italie
4
OVPF -
Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise
( 262384 )
- 14 RN3-Km27, 97418, La Plaine des Cafres, La Réunion, France
- La Réunion
5
University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences
( 1101456 )
- Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1RJ
- Royaume-Uni
6
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione
( 1101457 )
- Via Vitorchiano 2, 00189 Roma
- Italie
7
Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
( 1043004 )
- Équateur
8
ISTO -
Institut des Sciences de la Terre d'Orléans - UMR7327
( 187882 )
- Campus Géosciences 1A, rue de la Férollerie 45071 Orléans cedex 2
- France
9
Magma - UMR7327
( 524463 )
- France
10
DG-FCUL, Departamento de Geologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa
( 1077052 )
- Portugal
11
UNITO -
Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin
( 47709 )
- Via Verdi, 8
10124 Torino
Italie
- Italie
12
USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory
( 1101458 )
- 4230 University Drive Suite 100, Anchorage, AK, 99508
- États-Unis
13
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
( 570347 )
- Cambridge
- Royaume-Uni
14
GEO3BCN CSIC, Geosci Barcelona, Grp Dynam Lithosphere GDL, Luis Sole I Sabaris S-N, Barcelona 08028
( 1055030 )
- Espagne
15
Etat Major de Zone et de Protection Civil de l’Océan Indien, Protection civile
( 1101459 )
- 50 boulevard Lancastel, 97400 Saint Denis
- France
16
UR -
Université de La Réunion
( 300316 )
- 15, avenue René Cassin - CS92003 -97744 Saint Denis Cedex 9
- La Réunion
17
University at Buffalo, Department of Geology
( 1101460 )
- 126 Cooke Hall, North Campus, Buffalo, NY, 14260
- États-Unis
18
IPGP (UMR_7154) -
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
( 1005035 )
- 1 rue Jussieu, 75238 Paris cedex 05 et Bât. Lamarck A case postale 7011, 75205 Paris CEDEX 13
- France
19
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
( 1101461 )
- Via Vitorchiano 2, 00189 Roma
- Italie
20
Université de Genève, Département des sciences de la Terre
( 1101462 )
- 13 Rue des Maraîchers, 1205 Genève
- Suisse
21
Journal de l’île
( 1101463 )
- 62 boulevard Chaudron, 97490 Saint Denis
- France
22
Department of Geology and Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA.
( 573394 )
- États-Unis
23
Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Wissenschaftpark "Albert Einstein"
( 1101464 )
- Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam
- Allemagne
24
Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
( 505953 )
- Équateur
25
LGSR -
Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion
( 109490 )
- Faculté des Sciences et techniques - Université de La Réunion 15 avenue René Cassin CS92003 97744 SAINT DENIS CEDEX 9
- La Réunion
|
Licence |
Paternité
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2022-05-04
|
Volume |
5
|
Numéro |
1
|
Page/Identifiant |
105-131
|
Commentaire |
co-auteur étranger
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Référence interne |
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Expert elicitation, Effusive volcanism
fr
Piton de la Fournaise
|
DOI | 10.30909/vol.05.01.105131 |
Base Horizon | fdi:010088392 |
Origine :
Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
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